Normally, when an incumbent who is popular with his party is running unopposed in a primary — or when the opponents are fairly marginal figures most voters have forgotten actually exist — there’s very low turnout for the incumbent. That was not the case with Donald Trump last week, on Super Tuesday. He had a blowout primary, with people turning out in unexpected droves to vote for him.
Trump voters knew that their vote wouldn’t matter in terms of Trump gaining the delegates for their state. They turned out to make a point: Trump’s voters are wildly enthusiastic. They don’t just talk the talk on social media; they walk the walk at polling stations, even when the results are a foregone conclusion.
The same pattern repeated itself on March 10’s mini–Super Tuesday.
Because of the publishing schedule, as this goes to publication, not all of the votes have been counted in the various mini–Super Tuesday states. Nevertheless, there’s a pattern that cannot be ignored, and it’s one that favors Trump — especially when compared to those states in which Obama showed up on the ballot as the 2012 incumbent (Missouri, Mississippi, and Michigan).
All of the information below is from Decision Desk HQ. If you hate numbers, the interesting facts can be found after the list:
Democrat Turnout (with 60.52% reporting): 96,732
Votes for Biden: 46,560
Republican Turnout (with 60.52% reporting): 99,048
Votes for Trump: 92,164
Democrat Turnout (with 87.95% reporting): 1,457,714
Votes for Biden: 769,437
Republican Turnout (with 88.53% reporting): 610,661
Votes for Trump: 597,096
Votes for Obama in 2012: 174,054
Democrat Turnout (with 86.78% reporting): 247,288
Votes for Biden: 197,278
Republican Turnout (with 83.62% reporting): 221,929
Votes for Trump: 218,813
Votes for Obama in 2012: 97,304
Democrat Turnout: 661,822
Votes for Biden: 399,474
Republican Turnout: 307,256
Votes for Trump: 301,630
Votes for Obama in 2012: 64,435
Democrat Turnout (with 49.74% reporting): 1,026,102
Votes for Bernie: 335,498
Republican Turnout (with 50.41% reporting): 523,409
Votes for Trump: 523,409
North Dakota is a caucus state. Trump was not in the running today, and Decision Desk HQ does not have a breakdown for Trump.
In Idaho, with 60.52% of the precincts reporting, more Republicans showed up to vote for Trump than Democrats showed up to vote for their primary candidate in a fiercely fought contest. (Admittedly, that may change as the last votes are counted, but it’s still impressive.)
In Michigan, Trump got almost as many votes as Biden did and almost three and a half times as many votes as Obama did when he was on the 2012 ballot as the incumbent.
In Mississippi, Republicans showed up to vote with almost the same enthusiasm as Democrats did. Trump got more votes than Biden did and over two times as many votes as Obama did in 2012.
In Missouri, Democrats were the more enthusiastic voters, but Trump still made an excellent showing, receiving almost five times as many votes as Obama received in 2012.
In Washington State, even though Trump was unopposed on the ballot, over 500,000 people turned up to vote for him, which is more than voted for Bernie or Biden, who are neck and neck with 49.74% of votes counted (with Bernie holding a 0.21% lead).
What’s especially significant about the enthusiastic voter turnout for Donald Trump is the fact that, for weeks now and with increasing fervor in the last week, the media have been lambasting Trump for his allegedly failed response to the spread of the coronavirus in America.
It appears that Republican voters are tuning out the media’s negativity. They like what Trump has done as president, and they have faith that he is capable of undertaking the administrative work to handle a severe flu season and of making the best decisions to help the American people.